March Madness has always been about Cinderella stories—underdog teams making deep runs, capturing the hearts of fans, and proving anything is possible in college sports. But with more dollars in play, is there still room for magic in March?
The New Cost of Winning
It’s no secret: the teams with the most resources tend to win the most games. But in this new era, we’re no longer just talking about boosters and facilities—we’re talking about direct investment in athletes.
With revenue-sharing set to begin in July, the financial divide between programs is about to become even more visible.
Men’s Basketball revenue-share budgets for P4 schools will range from $1.6M to $7M ($3.3M median), effective in July. That compares to an expected range of $750K-$4M ($1.3M median) for G6 MBB programs. The rev-share ranges for Women’s Basketball budgets are far more consistent and competitive than the gap that exists on the men’s side—albeit with smaller pools of money.
But does this mean mid-majors should give up hope? Not exactly. While the numbers show that money helps win games, winning also creates more opportunities. Programs without deep NIL pockets can still compete by focusing on what they can control—elite coaching, player development, and strong team culture.
But money doesn’t just shape who wins—it also shapes where talent goes next.
The Poaching Problem
NIL is accelerating the movement of top talent from mid-majors to power programs. It’s even causing players to transfer from one P4 program to another that has a critical need. In the past, breakout players might stay, build a legacy, and lead a Cinderella run. Now, strong seasons guarantee visibility—and often, a better offer from a bigger school.
This trend is turning mid-majors into unofficial “farm systems” for the sport’s wealthiest programs. Shining at a smaller school now puts you on someone else’s radar.
Jay Williams summed it up simply on Get Up: “NIL is the death of mid-major Cinderella runs. It still can happen, but I think it’s going to be more of a rarity.”
"NIL is the death of mid-major Cinderella runs. … It still can happen, but I think it’s going to be more of a rarity."
— Get Up (@GetUpESPN) March 24, 2025
—@RealJayWilliams on the impact of NIL in college basketball pic.twitter.com/Z4xguBu7Hj
He’s not alone in that concern.
Stephen A. Smith echoed the sentiment on First Take, stating: “If this continues, it will be the death of college basketball. March Madness owns sports for those four weeks. What is the allure? That everybody has a chance. That’s what gravitates you.”
That idea—that anybody can win—is the soul of March Madness. But as the financial imbalance grows, the path to becoming this year’s Cinderella is steeper than ever. For mid-major schools, the challenge isn’t just recruiting talent—it’s retaining it.
Norfolk State Men’s Basketball Head Coach Robert Jones said, “JUCO coaches, I have so much more respect for them these days. They have to get a new team every year, every two years, something like that. We’re basically a glorified JUCO, not just Norfolk State, but until mid-majors get the money that high majors have, we’re never going to be able to keep kids here for a long time.”
But the irony is the trickle-down effect. Mid-majors can reload with top talent from levels beneath them. They are the P4 giants when it comes to NCAA Division II and III programs, NJCAA schools, and NAIA institutions. Top colleges in non-DI markets are bulking up their NIL resources to attract and retain top talent themselves, all in an attempt to avoid the poached poaching them.
Coaching Still Matters—But Is It Enough?
Coaching has always been the great equalizer—but even that may no longer be enough in today’s NIL era.
Take John Calipari’s 10-seed Arkansas, for example. Some might call it an underdog run, but Cal is a Hall of Fame coach leading what is reportedly one of the most expensive rosters in the sport. He and his staff rebuilt the program in a year. That’s often what success looks like in the new system.
For smaller MBB programs, great coaching isn’t a bonus—it’s survival. With limited NIL resources, they have to win with system-based play, player development, and culture. That’s what propelled schools like Butler, VCU, and Loyola-Chicago in past years.
But just like standout players, elite coaches don’t stay under the radar for long.
Ben McCollum to Iowa. Niko Medved to Minnesota. Will Wade to NC State. The sideline shuffle is constant—and for mid-majors, it means rebuilding both rosters and leadership on a regular basis.
NIL might not pay the coaching salaries, but it’s part of the ecosystem attracting top talent—on and off the court. For programs trying to stay competitive, coaching remains their clearest path forward—but it’s no longer a guaranteed advantage.
Has the Clock Struck Midnight on the Cinderella Story?
So, is NIL officially killing Cinderella stories? Not quite—but it’s making them harder to pull off.
NIL’s impact on winning is real, and with revenue-sharing on the horizon, the financial gap will only continue to widen.
But let’s not forget—we’re only a year removed from Jack Gohlke and 14-seed Oakland knocking off Kentucky, and NC State making a Final Four run as an 11-seed. Last year’s tournament was full of chaos—proof that the dream is still alive, even in the NIL era.
The real question isn’t whether Cinderella still exists—it’s what it will take to become one.
